Knife Snipe
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.34
0.67 coins
Advertised RTP
89.60%
EV $0.30 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.33%
14K openings, odds method
Variance
105.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4 | 1 in 10,000 | $333 665 coins | 11.1% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× |
| CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $3.30 6.59 coins | 22.0% | 279 | 279.2 | 1.00× |
| USP-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 50 | $3.28 6.56 coins | 21.9% | 290 | 279.2 | 1.04× |
| XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New)weapon · 1 | 1 in 50 | $3.28 6.55 coins | 21.8% | 286 | 279.2 | 1.02× |
| PP-Bizon | Bamboo Print (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 50 | $3.27 6.53 coins | 21.8% | 254 | 279.2 | 0.91× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 32.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.5% | 4,463 | 4467.8 | 1.00× |
| FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.3% | 2,737 | 2792.4 | 0.98× |
| FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 40.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.7% | 5,651 | 5583.4 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$0.340.67 coins$333665 coins992.9x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$0.340.67 coins$333665 coins992.9x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.60%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.34 | 89.60% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 2.0%covert 0.0%mil spec 2.0%Mythical 2.0%Consumer Grade 2.0%#4b69ff 72.0%consumer 20.0%best hit $333 (992.9x)