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Knifer

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$29.64
59.28 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $26.68 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.78%
3,189 openings, odds method
Variance
105.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 208
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
287 openings · below min
7 days
82.87%±41.362,365 openings
30 days
86.78%±35.623,189 openings
since tracking started
86.78%±35.623,189 openings
-0.5%115.0%230.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h287111.23%±118.7—odds
7d2,36582.87%±41.4−0.3σodds
30d3,18986.78%±35.6−0.2σodds
All3,18986.78%±35.6−0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,189 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 10,000$12.1K 24,151 coins4.5%00.3—
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 10,000$10.6K 21,246 coins4.0%00.3—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald1 in 10,000$10.4K 20,866 coins3.9%00.3—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 10,000$9,925 19,850 coins3.7%10.3—
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 10,000$9,900 19,800 coins3.7%00.3—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 10,000$9,847 19,695 coins3.7%00.3—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire1 in 10,000$9,483 18,967 coins3.6%10.3—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 10,000$9,398 18,795 coins3.5%00.3—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary1 in 1,000$1,493 2,987 coins5.6%23.20.63×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 1,000$1,461 2,922 coins5.5%23.20.63×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 21 in 1,000$1,454 2,909 coins5.5%43.21.25×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald1 in 1,000$1,449 2,899 coins5.4%73.22.20×
★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert1 in 50$59.51 119 coins4.5%5663.80.88×
★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 50$58.23 116 coins4.4%7163.81.11×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 50$57.70 115 coins4.3%6063.80.94×
★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd7001 in 50$57.67 115 coins4.3%6463.81.00×
★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 50$57.57 115 coins4.3%6063.80.94×
★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 50$57.54 115 coins4.3%6063.80.94×
★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 50$57.14 114 coins4.3%6063.80.94×
★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal1 in 50$56.78 114 coins4.3%7763.81.21×
★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 50$56.77 114 coins4.3%7563.81.18×
★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 50$56.76 114 coins4.3%6263.80.97×
★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 50$56.72 113 coins4.3%6463.81.00×
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer77.5%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%2,4632472.11.00×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$29.6459.28 coins$9,92519,850 coins334.9x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire$29.6459.28 coins$9,48318,967 coins320.0x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$29.6459.28 coins$1,4932,987 coins50.38x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendaryYodaGuy$29.6459.28 coins$1,4932,987 coins50.38x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$29.6459.28 coins$1,4612,922 coins49.29x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$29.6459.28 coins$1,4612,922 coins49.29x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$29.6459.28 coins$1,4542,909 coins49.07x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$29.6459.28 coins$1,4542,909 coins49.07x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$29.6459.28 coins$1,4542,909 coins49.07x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$29.6459.28 coins$1,4542,909 coins49.07x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700$29.6459.28 coins$57.67115 coins1.95x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$29.6459.28 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert$29.6459.28 coins$59.51119 coins2.01x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$29.6459.28 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700$29.6459.28 coins$57.67115 coins1.95x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$29.6459.28 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$29.6459.28 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife$29.6459.28 coins$57.54115 coins1.94x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$29.6459.28 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$29.6459.28 coins$1,4492,899 coins48.90x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$29.6490.00%24
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 8.3%#EB4B4B 0.0%legendary 0.1%Covert 2.1%covert knife 4.0%#ffd700 2.0%Immortal 2.0%gold 4.0%consumer 77.5%best hit $9,925 (334.9x)