Knifey

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$298.83

598 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $268.94 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

126.86%

3 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

3 openings · below min

30 days

3 openings · below min

since tracking started

3 openings · below min

-0.5%131.8%264.0%

Small sample. 3 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	3	126.86%±136.3	—	odds
30d	3	126.86%±136.3	—	odds
All	3	126.86%±136.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 25	$1,353 2,706 coins	20.1%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4	1 in 20	$1,050 2,099 coins	19.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 20	$608 1,217 coins	11.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$593 1,186 coins	11.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$588 1,175 coins	10.9%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 25	$550 1,099 coins	8.1%	1	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$268 536 coins	3.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$259 517 coins	3.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$129 258 coins	1.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$125 251 coins	1.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 25	$121 242 coins	1.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 25	$117 234 coins	1.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$63.33 127 coins	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 25	$56.77 114 coins	0.8%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$33.72 67.44 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$33.19 66.38 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$29.05 58.1 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Mayan Dreams (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 25	$26.67 53.33 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 25	$18.85 37.69 coins	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$18.43 36.85 coins	0.3%	0	0.1	—
G3SG1 \| Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 25	$0.02 0.04 coins	0.0%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 25	$0.01 0.03 coins	0.0%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 25	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	1	0.1	—
G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	0	0.2	—

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$299598 coins$5881,175 coins1.97x6d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4BDemonDeeeeek$299598 coins$5501,099 coins1.84x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$299598 coins$5881,175 coins1.97x6d

SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer$299598 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x6d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4BDemonDeeeeek$299598 coins$5501,099 coins1.84x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$299	90.00%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 23.7%Covert 5.0%#ffd700 5.0%covert knife 21.8%#EB4B4B 3.9%other 3.9%gold 3.9%classified 3.9%Industrial Grade 3.9%Mil Spec Grade 3.9%restricted 3.9%blue 3.9%consumer 7.9%industrial 5.0%best hit $588 (1.97x)