LA 1.2% Bayonets

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$12.50
25 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
78.15%
3,866 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
22 openings · below min
7 days
700 openings · below min
30 days
78.15%±27.643,866 openings
since tracking started
78.15%±27.643,866 openings
-0.5%73.8%148.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h220.04%±0.00—sample
7d70079.96%±67.5—sample
30d3,86678.15%±27.6—sample
All3,86678.15%±27.6—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert$12.5025 coins$1,8583,716 coins148.6x
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert$12.5025 coins$1,8583,716 coins148.6x
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert$12.5025 coins$1,8583,716 coins148.6x
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert$12.5025 coins$1,8583,716 coins148.6x
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert$12.5025 coins$1,8583,716 coins148.6x
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert$12.5025 coins$1,8583,716 coins148.6x
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert$12.5025 coins$1,8583,716 coins148.6x

Latest dropsnewest first

XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,858 (148.6x)