Lake

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$84.42

169 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $75.97 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.86%

1,624 openings, odds method

Variance

95.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

94.46%±59.551,034 openings

30 days

86.86%±47.521,624 openings

since tracking started

86.86%±47.521,624 openings

34.5%94.5%154.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	1,034	94.46%±59.6	+0.1σ	odds
30d	1,624	86.86%±47.5	−0.1σ	odds
All	1,624	86.86%±47.5	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,624 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 10,000	$73.5K 147,047 coins	9.7%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 10,000	$31.6K 63,128 coins	4.2%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$9,356 18,711 coins	1.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$6,648 13,296 coins	0.9%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl	1 in 10,000	$5,893 11,786 coins	0.8%	2	0.2	—
Charm \| Chicken Lil'charm · uncommon	1 in 10,000	$5,000 10,000 coins	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$2,150 4,300 coins	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 10,000	$1,672 3,343 coins	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 10,000	$1,405 2,810 coins	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,402 2,805 coins	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · Immortal · Phase 3	1 in 11	$501 1,001 coins	59.3%	155	146.2	1.06×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 111	$401 802 coins	4.7%	14	14.6	0.96×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	10.0%	$129 258 coins	17.0%	180	162.4	1.11×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	80.0%	$0.70 1.41 coins	0.7%	1,273	1299.2	0.98×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl$84.42169 coins$5,89311,786 coins69.81x3d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl$84.42169 coins$5,89311,786 coins69.81x6d

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · Immortal · Phase 3$84.42169 coins$5011,001 coins5.93x1d

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · Immortal · Phase 3syltfanxx$84.42169 coins$5011,001 coins5.93x1d

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · Immortal · Phase 3$84.42169 coins$5011,001 coins5.93x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$84.42169 coins$0.701.41 coins0.01x1d

Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil specsyltfanxx$84.42169 coins$0.701.41 coins0.01x1d

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · Immortal · Phase 3$84.42169 coins$5011,001 coins5.93x1d

Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$84.42169 coins$0.701.41 coins0.01x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$84.42	89.99%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%remarkable 0.0%covert 0.0%Knives 0.0%uncommon 0.0%#EB4B4B 0.0%Immortal 9.0%covert knife 0.9%#ffd700 10.0%mil spec 80.0%best hit $5,893 (69.81x)