Last Chance

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.81

15.61 coins

Advertised RTP

89.94%

EV $7.02 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.70%

1,783 openings, odds method

Variance

23.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87 openings · below min

7 days

79.90%±27.171,235 openings

30 days

78.70%±22.611,783 openings

since tracking started

78.70%±22.611,783 openings

-0.5%82.5%165.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	87	62.59%±102.4	—	odds
7d	1,235	79.90%±27.2	−0.7σ	odds
30d	1,783	78.70%±22.6	−1.0σ	odds
All	1,783	78.70%±22.6	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,789 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 13,333	$3,097 6,194 coins	3.3%	0	0.1	—
Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 8,000	$1,598 3,196 coins	2.8%	0	0.2	—
MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$97.15 194 coins	13.8%	16	17.9	0.89×
Souvenir Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$93.07 186 coins	13.3%	15	17.9	0.84×
M249 \| Blizzard Marbleized (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 100	$89.99 180 coins	12.8%	15	17.9	0.84×
Nova \| Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 100	$81.41 163 coins	11.6%	22	17.9	1.23×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 100	$75.70 151 coins	10.8%	18	17.9	1.01×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial	1 in 100	$58.47 117 coins	8.3%	17	17.9	0.95×
XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$46.50 93 coins	6.6%	10	17.9	0.56×
Sawed-Off \| Mosaico (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$14.82 29.64 coins	6.3%	58	53.7	1.08×
M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 33	$12.53 25.05 coins	5.4%	60	53.7	1.12×
Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 33	$11.36 22.71 coins	4.9%	37	53.7	0.69×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	84.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.1%	1,521	1502.4	1.01×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M249 | Shipping Forecast (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff$7.8115.61 coins$12.5325.05 coins1.60x1m

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$7.8115.61 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffmeowmeoww$7.8115.61 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$7.8115.61 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffMoon1025$7.8115.61 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$7.81	89.94%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedhigh 0.0%classified 0.0%restricted 1.0%industrial 4.0%Industrial Grade 2.0%Mil Spec Grade 1.0%Industrial 1.0%Mythical 1.0%#87c7ff 3.0%light blue 3.0%#4b69ff 84.0%best hit —