Last Knight

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.40

0.8 coins

Advertised RTP

89.66%

EV $0.36 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.54%

9,923 openings, odds method

Variance

857.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

35.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78.99%±206.73771 openings

7 days

78.47%±61.838,619 openings

30 days

79.54%±57.629,923 openings

since tracking started

79.54%±57.629,923 openings

-0.5%143.0%286.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	771	78.99%±206.7	−0.1σ	odds
7d	8,619	78.47%±61.8	−0.4σ	odds
30d	9,923	79.54%±57.6	−0.3σ	odds
All	9,923	79.54%±57.6	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,927 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$2,441 4,881 coins	6.8%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100,000	$1,707 3,413 coins	4.8%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| NiKo (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker	1 in 100,000	$1,253 2,507 coins	3.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$824 1,648 coins	2.3%	0	0.1	—
Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 100,000	$797 1,594 coins	2.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100,000	$508 1,016 coins	1.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$266 531 coins	7.4%	0	1.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 10,000	$254 507 coins	7.1%	2	1.0	—
FAMAS \| Spitfire (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$127 254 coins	3.5%	3	1.0	—
★ Classic Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$82.24 164 coins	2.3%	2	1.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 10,000	$81.27 163 coins	2.3%	2	1.0	—
Sawed-Off \| Copper (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$77.91 156 coins	2.2%	0	1.0	—
SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 10,000	$26.46 52.92 coins	0.7%	1	1.0	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$14.24 28.47 coins	0.4%	0	1.0	—
P90 \| Traction (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	35.0%	$0.54 1.07 coins	52.2%	3,521	3474.4	1.01×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	64.9%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.9%	6,396	6444.0	0.99×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$0.400.8 coins$254507 coins634.3x1d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$0.400.8 coins$254507 coins634.3x3d

FAMAS | Spitfire (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.400.8 coins$127254 coins317.9x1d

FAMAS | Spitfire (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.400.8 coins$127254 coins317.9x3d

FAMAS | Spitfire (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.400.8 coins$127254 coins317.9x7d

★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife$0.400.8 coins$82.24164 coins205.6x4d

★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife$0.400.8 coins$82.24164 coins205.6x8d

★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes$0.400.8 coins$81.27163 coins203.2x19h

★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes$0.400.8 coins$81.27163 coins203.2x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$0.400.8 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.01x21s

P90 | Traction (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$0.400.8 coins$0.541.07 coins1.34x21s

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$0.400.8 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.01x21s

P90 | Traction (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$0.400.8 coins$0.541.07 coins1.34x21s

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$0.400.8 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.01x21s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.66%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.40	89.66%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.0%covert 0.0%other 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%#4B69FF 0.0%covert knife 0.0%restricted 0.0%knifes 0.0%mil spec 35.0%industrial 0.0%#4b69ff 64.9%best hit $254 (634.3x)