Latch

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$30.25

60.5 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $27.22 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

145.50%

8 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

8 openings · below min

30 days

8 openings · below min

since tracking started

8 openings · below min

89.5%144.8%200.0%

Small sample. 8 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	8	145.50%±53.9	—	odds
30d	8	145.50%±53.9	—	odds
All	8	145.50%±53.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$102 204 coins	7.5%	1	0.2	—
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$68.84 138 coins	10.1%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$65.26 131 coins	9.6%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$62.08 124 coins	9.1%	1	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Brass (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$59.39 119 coins	8.7%	1	0.3	—
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$53.72 107 coins	7.9%	0	0.3	—
Souvenir XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon	1 in 25	$50.61 101 coins	7.4%	0	0.3	—
Charm \| Lil' Avacharm · uncommon	1 in 14	$28.13 56.25 coins	7.2%	0	0.6	—
SCAR-20 \| Palm (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 14	$24.29 48.58 coins	6.2%	0	0.6	—
Dual Berettas \| Pyre (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 14	$20.37 40.73 coins	5.2%	0	0.6	—
SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 14	$18.85 37.69 coins	4.8%	2	0.6	—
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$18.43 36.85 coins	4.7%	1	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$17.02 34.03 coins	4.4%	0	0.6	—
MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 11	$12.04 24.08 coins	4.0%	0	0.7	—
PP-Bizon \| Antique (Factory New)weapon · restricted	11.0%	$7.36 14.71 coins	3.0%	1	0.9	—
FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	12.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	0	1.0	—

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$30.2560.5 coins$65.26131 coins2.16x1d

AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$30.2560.5 coins$18.4336.85 coins0.61x1d

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$30.2560.5 coins$102204 coins3.37x1d

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$30.2560.5 coins$62.08124 coins2.05x1d

PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New)weapon · restricted$30.2560.5 coins$7.3614.71 coins0.24x1d

SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Graderekztimmy$30.2560.5 coins$18.8537.69 coins0.62x1d

Glock-18 | Brass (Factory New)weapon · restricted$30.2560.5 coins$59.39119 coins1.96x1d

SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$30.2560.5 coins$18.8537.69 coins0.62x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$30.25	89.99%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 10.0%restricted 26.0%covert 11.0%other 4.0%uncommon 7.0%Uncommon 7.0%industrial 7.0%Mil Spec Grade 7.0%consumer 21.0%best hit —