Lavish

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.89

7.77 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $3.50 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.26%

5,793 openings, odds method

Variance

99.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 103

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

47.85%±74.09696 openings

7 days

101.33%±30.414,131 openings

30 days

91.26%±25.685,793 openings

since tracking started

91.26%±25.685,793 openings

-0.5%66.0%132.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	696	47.85%±74.1	−1.1σ	odds
7d	4,131	101.33%±30.4	+0.7σ	odds
30d	5,793	91.26%±25.7	+0.1σ	odds
All	5,793	91.26%±25.7	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,793 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100,000	$7,335 14,669 coins	2.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 20,000	$1,505 3,010 coins	2.2%	0	0.3	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,331 2,662 coins	3.8%	2	0.6	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$1,010 2,020 coins	2.9%	0	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 4,000	$800 1,600 coins	5.7%	4	1.4	2.76×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$517 1,035 coins	10.4%	3	4.1	0.74×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 1,000	$366 732 coins	10.5%	4	5.8	0.69×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 400	$156 311 coins	11.1%	11	14.5	0.76×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 200	$52.51 105 coins	7.5%	19	29.0	0.66×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$26.89 53.78 coins	7.7%	55	57.9	0.95×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$24.16 48.32 coins	6.9%	45	57.9	0.78×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$21.58 43.15 coins	6.2%	58	57.9	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$14.61 29.21 coins	8.4%	128	115.9	1.10×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 50	$13.27 26.54 coins	7.6%	118	115.9	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$7.59 15.17 coins	6.5%	207	173.8	1.19×
Nova \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	89.0%	$0.03 0.05 coins	0.6%	5,139	5157.4	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert$3.897.77 coins$1,3312,662 coins342.7x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert$3.897.77 coins$1,3312,662 coins342.7x6d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$3.897.77 coins$8001,600 coins205.9x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifepatriarch1337$3.897.77 coins$8001,600 coins205.9x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifePrimeFlint1959$3.897.77 coins$8001,600 coins205.9x6d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$3.897.77 coins$8001,600 coins205.9x8d

★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$3.897.77 coins$5171,035 coins133.2x1d

★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$3.897.77 coins$5171,035 coins133.2x4d

★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertconR$3.897.77 coins$5171,035 coins133.2x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Nova | Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$3.897.77 coins$0.030.05 coins0.01x19s

Nova | Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · UncommonBG2x$3.897.77 coins$0.030.05 coins0.01x19s

Nova | Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$3.897.77 coins$0.030.05 coins0.01x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.89	89.99%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.3%legendary 0.0%covert knife 0.0%rare 0.1%Mil Spec Grade 0.5%classified 4.0%mil spec 1.0%Industrial Grade 2.0%Uncommon 89.0%best hit $1,331 (342.7x)