Legendary

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$81.05

162 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $72.94 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.07%

1,361 openings, odds method

Variance

31.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 68

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

74.24%±42.64667 openings

30 days

85.07%±29.851,361 openings

since tracking started

85.07%±29.851,361 openings

31.0%74.3%117.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	667	74.24%±42.6	−0.7σ	odds
30d	1,361	85.07%±29.9	−0.3σ	odds
All	1,361	85.07%±29.9	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,361 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$15.1K 30,112 coins	2.1%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$8,862 17,724 coins	6.1%	1	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,667	$7,714 15,428 coins	6.3%	0	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,429	$7,651 15,302 coins	7.3%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 667	$3,948 7,896 coins	8.1%	3	2.0	1.47×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 444	$2,469 4,937 coins	7.6%	4	3.1	1.31×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 333	$2,023 4,047 coins	8.3%	7	4.1	1.71×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 167	$1,317 2,634 coins	10.8%	6	8.2	0.73×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 125	$893 1,787 coins	9.8%	14	10.9	1.29×
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$667 1,334 coins	9.1%	13	13.6	0.96×
Charm \| That's Bananascharm · uncommon	1 in 50	$333 667 coins	9.1%	21	27.2	0.77×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1	1 in 33	$179 358 coins	7.4%	28	40.8	0.69×
MAG-7 \| Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$56.31 113 coins	3.1%	58	54.4	1.07×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$51.39 103 coins	2.8%	51	54.4	0.94×
Charm \| Lil' Avacharm · uncommon	1 in 20	$28.13 56.25 coins	1.9%	75	68.0	1.10×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	78.7%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	1,080	1071.6	1.01×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$81.05162 coins$8,86217,724 coins109.3x7d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$81.05162 coins$3,9487,896 coins48.71x6d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendaryYodaGuy$81.05162 coins$3,9487,896 coins48.71x8d

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$81.05162 coins$2,4694,937 coins30.46x5d

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$81.05162 coins$2,4694,937 coins30.46x7d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$81.05162 coins$2,0234,047 coins24.97x3d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$81.05162 coins$2,0234,047 coins24.97x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$81.05162 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$81.05	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 1.0%covert 5.3%legendary 0.1%Covert 0.8%uncommon 7.0%other 3.0%mil spec 4.0%#4b69ff 78.7%best hit $8,862 (109.3x)