LFGER
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$36.08
72.16 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $32.47 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.48%
161 openings, odds method
Variance
8.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 161 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$36.0872.16 coins$76.94154 coins2.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $36.08 | 90.00% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.5%high 0.0%classified 0.5%extraordinary 0.5%Extraordinary 0.5%Covert 0.5%covert knife 3.0%gold 1.0%Industrial Grade 10.0%Common 16.0%consumer 16.0%#4b69ff 33.5%industrial 16.0%best hit —