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A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$16.66

33.32 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $14.99 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

119.12%

240 openings, odds method

Variance

8.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

118.95%±38.73210 openings

30 days

119.12%±36.23240 openings

since tracking started

119.12%±36.23240 openings

13.0%154.0%295.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	153.83%±140.3	—	odds
7d	210	118.95%±38.7	+1.5σ	odds
30d	240	119.12%±36.2	+1.6σ	odds
All	240	119.12%±36.2	+1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 240 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 33	$236 471 coins	47.2%	11	7.2	1.53×
★ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$129 258 coins	25.8%	7	7.2	0.97×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$100 201 coins	20.1%	9	7.2	1.25×
★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$45.21 90.41 coins	3.0%	3	2.4	1.25×
P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$23.04 46.07 coins	1.5%	2	2.4	0.83×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$22.86 45.72 coins	1.5%	7	2.4	2.92×
MP7 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$6.56 13.11 coins	0.4%	2	2.4	0.83×
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$4.97 9.94 coins	0.3%	1	2.4	0.42×
Charm \| Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff	1 in 100	$0.50 1 coins	0.0%	3	2.4	1.25×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	85.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	195	204.0	0.96×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$16.6633.32 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerMoon1025$16.6633.32 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$16.6633.32 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15h

★ Survival Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife$16.6633.32 coins$129258 coins7.74x15h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$16.6633.32 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerMoon1025$16.6633.32 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$16.66	89.99%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 3.0%covert knife 6.0%extraordinary 1.0%mil spec 2.0%covert 1.0%Legendary 1.0%#4b69ff 1.0%consumer 85.0%best hit —