LilGriggyItaly

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.54

9.08 coins

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

96.27%

40.5K openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.37%±30.866,542 openings

7 days

98.04%±13.9532.8K openings

30 days

96.27%±12.3140.5K openings

since tracking started

96.27%±12.3140.5K openings

57.0%88.5%120.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6,542	88.37%±30.9	—	sample
7d	32.8K	98.04%±14.0	—	sample
30d	40.5K	96.27%±12.3	—	sample
All	40.5K	96.27%±12.3	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4.549.08 coins$2,7925,584 coins615.0x6h

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4.549.08 coins$2,7925,584 coins615.0x2d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4.549.08 coins$2,7925,584 coins615.0x3d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4.549.08 coins$2,7925,584 coins615.0x5d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4.549.08 coins$2,7925,584 coins615.0x9d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4.549.08 coins$1,2662,533 coins279.0x5h

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4.549.08 coins$1,2662,533 coins279.0x13h

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4.549.08 coins$1,2662,533 coins279.0x21h

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4.549.08 coins$1,2662,533 coins279.0x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$4.549.08 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialJadegriggy$4.549.08 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$4.549.08 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $2,792 (615.0x)