LMG Chaser
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$159.03
318 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $143.12 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.10%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
46.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
54.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 11.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $1,598 3,196 coins | 11.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 45.0% | $253 506 coins | 79.5% | 11 | 10.8 | 1.02× |
| M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 20 | $89.99 180 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| Souvenir M249 | Gator Mesh (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 20 | $77.52 155 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| Negev | Palm (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $18.92 37.84 coins | 0.7% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.50× |
| M249 | Shipping Forecast (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 1 in 20 | $12.53 25.05 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 20 | $11.24 22.47 coins | 0.4% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| M249 | Shipping Forecast (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 20 | $9.84 19.68 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New)weapon · 1 | 1 in 20 | $9.66 19.31 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| M249 | Humidor (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 19.0% | $9.59 19.17 coins | 1.3% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.32× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $159 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 5.0%classified 1.0%#4b69ff 45.0%Industrial Grade 15.0%industrial 5.0%#87c7ff 5.0%consumer 5.0%Rare 19.0%best hit —