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Loco Lily

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$48.01
96.01 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $43.21 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.88%
326 openings, odds method
Variance
13.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
168 openings · below min
30 days
81.88%±39.84326 openings
since tracking started
81.88%±39.84326 openings
22.5%78.8%135.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d16878.67%±55.5—odds
30d32681.88%±39.8−0.4σodds
All32681.88%±39.8−0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 326 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 100$1,638 3,277 coins37.9%23.30.61×
SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 100$658 1,316 coins15.2%53.31.53×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$254 508 coins5.9%43.31.23×
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified1 in 100$166 333 coins3.8%33.30.92×
StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$137 273 coins3.2%23.30.61×
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified1 in 100$107 215 coins2.5%23.30.61×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 50$85.93 172 coins4.0%46.50.61×
Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 50$75.38 151 coins3.5%96.51.38×
Five-SeveN | Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50$54.12 108 coins2.5%66.50.92×
Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 25$45.68 91.35 coins4.2%1213.00.92×
Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 25$32.09 64.17 coins3.0%1013.00.77×
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified15.0%$16.67 33.34 coins5.8%5048.91.02×
UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)weapon · pink20.0%$9.14 18.27 coins4.2%6065.20.92×
Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New)weapon · classified15.0%$5.04 10.08 coins1.7%6048.91.23×
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert15.0%$4.53 9.06 coins1.6%4348.90.88×
UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified15.0%$2.78 5.56 coins1.0%5448.91.10×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified$48.0196.01 coins$1,6383,277 coins34.13x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified$48.0196.01 coins$1,6383,277 coins34.13x
SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New)weapon · classified$48.0196.01 coins$6581,316 coins13.71x
SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New)weapon · classified$48.0196.01 coins$6581,316 coins13.71x
SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New)weapon · classified$48.0196.01 coins$6581,316 coins13.71x
SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New)weapon · classified$48.0196.01 coins$6581,316 coins13.71x
SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New)weapon · classified$48.0196.01 coins$6581,316 coins13.71x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New)weapon · classified$48.0196.01 coins$5.0410.08 coins0.10x
UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$48.0196.01 coins$2.785.56 coins0.06x
UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)weapon · pink$48.0196.01 coins$9.1418.27 coins0.19x
Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New)weapon · classifiedKocvreKK$48.0196.01 coins$5.0410.08 coins0.10x
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified$48.0196.01 coins$16.6733.34 coins0.35x
UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$48.0196.01 coins$2.785.56 coins0.06x
Five-SeveN | Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted$48.0196.01 coins$54.12108 coins1.13x
Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New)weapon · classifiedKocvreKK$48.0196.01 coins$5.0410.08 coins0.10x
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified$48.0196.01 coins$16.6733.34 coins0.35x
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$48.0196.01 coins$4.539.06 coins0.09x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$48.0190.00%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 57.0%covert 19.0%Classified 2.0%restricted 2.0%pink 20.0%best hit $1,638 (34.13x)