Lore
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.76
31.52 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $14.18 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
61.37%
920 openings, odds method
Variance
34.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 920 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $2,317 4,635 coins | 16.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $1,678 3,356 coins | 11.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 1,000 | $677 1,353 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $52.99 106 coins | 3.7% | 8 | 9.2 | 0.87× |
| M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $21.68 43.36 coins | 15.3% | 95 | 92.0 | 1.03× |
| P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $15.02 30.03 coins | 31.8% | 287 | 276.0 | 1.04× |
| Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $5.18 10.35 coins | 10.9% | 279 | 276.0 | 1.01× |
| CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 28.7% | $2.64 5.27 coins | 5.3% | 251 | 264.0 | 0.95× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.76 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.2%epic 0.1%restricted 61.0%classified 28.7%best hit —