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Lost Treasure

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$144.31
289 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $129.88 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.68%
740 openings, odds method
Variance
12.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 26
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
24 openings · below min
7 days
84.17%±26.70662 openings
30 days
84.68%±25.26740 openings
since tracking started
84.68%±25.26740 openings
57.0%258.0%459.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h24317.91%±140.2—odds
7d66284.17%±26.7−0.4σodds
30d74084.68%±25.3−0.4σodds
All74084.68%±25.3−0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 740 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 1,000$10.6K 21,246 coins8.2%10.7—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 286$3,948 7,896 coins10.6%02.60.00×
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 222$3,195 6,389 coins11.1%73.32.10×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 100$1,241 2,481 coins9.6%87.41.08×
Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100$1,182 2,363 coins9.1%47.40.54×
★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 100$1,125 2,251 coins8.7%17.40.14×
Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF1 in 100$797 1,594 coins6.1%67.40.81×
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 33$451 903 coins10.4%2522.21.13×
M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 25$301 602 coins9.3%3129.61.05×
★ Paracord Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 17$101 202 coins4.7%4444.40.99×
★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 17$63.24 126 coins2.9%4544.41.01×
★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 13$51.73 103 coins3.2%4859.20.81×
FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 13$40.42 80.83 coins2.5%5659.20.95×
★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 13$33.56 67.12 coins2.1%7259.21.22×
Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 13$22.78 45.56 coins1.4%7059.21.18×
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted44.1%$0.68 1.35 coins0.2%322326.30.99×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$144289 coins$10.6K21,246 coins73.61x
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryMoon1025$144289 coins$3,1956,389 coins22.14x
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$144289 coins$3,1956,389 coins22.14x
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$144289 coins$3,1956,389 coins22.14x
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$144289 coins$3,1956,389 coins22.14x
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$144289 coins$3,1956,389 coins22.14x
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryeklinga$144289 coins$3,1956,389 coins22.14x
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$144289 coins$3,1956,389 coins22.14x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$144289 coins$1,2412,481 coins8.60x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$144289 coins$1,2412,481 coins8.60x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted$144289 coins$0.681.35 coins0.00x
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted$144289 coins$0.681.35 coins0.00x
M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert$144289 coins$301602 coins2.09x
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted$144289 coins$0.681.35 coins0.00x
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted$144289 coins$0.681.35 coins0.00x
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted$144289 coins$0.681.35 coins0.00x
★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert$144289 coins$63.24126 coins0.44x
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryMoon1025$144289 coins$3,1956,389 coins22.14x
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted$144289 coins$0.681.35 coins0.00x
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$144289 coins$3,1956,389 coins22.14x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$14490.00%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 20.1%legendary 0.4%extraordinary 17.4%restricted 45.1%#4B69FF 1.0%classified 16.0%best hit $10.6K (73.61x)