Lucid Dream

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.66

5.31 coins

Advertised RTP

89.93%

EV $2.39 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.22%

4,344 openings, odds method

Variance

61.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.98%±78.69381 openings

7 days

80.75%±27.063,221 openings

30 days

80.22%±23.304,344 openings

since tracking started

80.22%±23.304,344 openings

-0.5%78.5%157.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	381	77.98%±78.7	−0.3σ	odds
7d	3,221	80.75%±27.1	−0.7σ	odds
30d	4,344	80.22%±23.3	−0.8σ	odds
All	4,344	80.22%±23.3	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,344 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 50,000	$2,877 5,754 coins	2.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 50,000	$1,701 3,402 coins	1.4%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$1,638 3,277 coins	1.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 3	1 in 50,000	$1,524 3,048 coins	1.3%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 50,000	$1,316 2,632 coins	1.1%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 50,000	$1,170 2,340 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 50,000	$1,071 2,142 coins	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 50,000	$1,044 2,089 coins	0.9%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified	12.0%	$5.77 11.53 coins	29.0%	539	521.3	1.03×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted	12.0%	$4.59 9.17 coins	23.0%	511	521.3	0.98×
P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New)weapon · restricted	12.0%	$3.17 6.33 coins	15.9%	488	521.3	0.94×
Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3	12.0%	$1.37 2.74 coins	6.9%	533	521.3	1.02×
R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Field-Tested)weapon · 2	12.0%	$1.31 2.62 coins	6.6%	530	521.3	1.02×
PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	12.0%	$1.08 2.16 coins	5.4%	503	521.3	0.96×
AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	13.0%	$0.51 1.02 coins	2.8%	554	564.7	0.98×
Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	15.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.1%	686	650.9	1.05×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.665.31 coins$0.511.02 coins0.19x23m

UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified$2.665.31 coins$5.7711.53 coins2.17x23m

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$2.665.31 coins$1.082.16 coins0.41x23m

P2000 | Handgun (Factory New)weapon · restrictedMoon1025$2.665.31 coins$3.176.33 coins1.19x23m

Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$2.665.31 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x37m

Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted$2.665.31 coins$4.599.17 coins1.73x37m

R8 Revolver | Phoenix Marker (Field-Tested)weapon · 2$2.665.31 coins$1.312.62 coins0.49x37m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$2.66	89.93%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 12.0%3 12.0%high 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 12.0%Covert 0.0%epic 0.0%gold 0.0%restricted 36.0%mil spec 13.0%consumer 15.0%best hit —