Lucky AWP
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.80
1.6 coins
Advertised RTP
89.64%
EV $0.72 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.04%
22.5K openings, odds method
Variance
145.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 278
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $639 1,278 coins | 8.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.89× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 2,000 | $290 580 coins | 20.2% | 10 | 11.3 | 0.89× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $82.16 164 coins | 11.5% | 21 | 22.5 | 0.93× |
| AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 500 | $41.20 82.39 coins | 11.5% | 41 | 45.0 | 0.91× |
| AWP | Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 200 | $7.71 15.42 coins | 5.4% | 112 | 112.6 | 1.00× |
| AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $1.33 2.65 coins | 1.8% | 214 | 225.1 | 0.95× |
| SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 48.0% | $0.30 0.61 coins | 20.4% | 10,815 | 10805.8 | 1.00× |
| SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 50.1% | $0.29 0.58 coins | 20.3% | 11,297 | 11287.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertGoldenhands$0.801.6 coins$6391,278 coins798.6x
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertGoldenhands$0.801.6 coins$6391,278 coins798.6x
StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$0.801.6 coins$290580 coins362.6x
StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classifiedbanana$0.801.6 coins$290580 coins362.6x
StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classifiednaterp93$0.801.6 coins$290580 coins362.6x
StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$0.801.6 coins$290580 coins362.6x
StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$0.801.6 coins$290580 coins362.6x
StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$0.801.6 coins$290580 coins362.6x
StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$0.801.6 coins$290580 coins362.6x
StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$0.801.6 coins$290580 coins362.6x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.64%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.80 | 89.64% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%Classified 0.1%classified 0.3%restricted 1.5%Rare 98.1%best hit $639 (798.6x)