Lucky Duck

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$514.79

1,030 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $463.31 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

53.63%

52 openings, odds method

Variance

5.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

52 openings · below min

30 days

52 openings · below min

since tracking started

52 openings · below min

-0.5%58.0%116.5%

Small sample. 52 openings and 6.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	52	53.63%±62.2	—	odds
30d	52	53.63%±62.2	—	odds
All	52	53.63%±62.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 10,000	$72.4K 144,822 coins	1.6%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$26.7K 53,347 coins	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,500	$18.7K 37,392 coins	1.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$15.1K 30,112 coins	1.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$8,675 17,351 coins	1.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl	1 in 500	$5,893 11,786 coins	2.5%	0	0.1	—
Charm \| Chicken Lil'charm · uncommon	1 in 333	$5,000 10,000 coins	3.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$3,592 7,183 coins	3.9%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary	1 in 100	$2,528 5,057 coins	5.5%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$1,979 3,958 coins	8.5%	1	1.0	0.96×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$1,501 3,002 coins	9.7%	1	1.6	0.64×
Sticker \| mir (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary	1 in 22	$1,250 2,500 coins	12.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1	1 in 22	$1,035 2,071 coins	10.1%	1	2.3	0.43×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	83.8%	$201 402 coins	36.3%	49	43.6	1.12×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.