Lucky Winner

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$301.86

604 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $271.67 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.25%

3,140 openings, odds method

Variance

77.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 220

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

736 openings · below min

7 days

76.12%±32.572,812 openings

30 days

80.25%±30.823,140 openings

since tracking started

80.25%±30.823,140 openings

0.0%64.5%129.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	736	64.44%±63.7	—	odds
7d	2,812	76.12%±32.6	−0.8σ	odds
30d	3,140	80.25%±30.8	−0.6σ	odds
All	3,140	80.25%±30.8	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,140 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$112K 223,312 coins	6.2%	0	0.5	—
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 4,000	$72.4K 144,822 coins	6.7%	0	0.8	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 2,500	$52.4K 104,780 coins	7.7%	1	1.3	0.80×
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 1,333	$31.6K 63,128 coins	8.7%	3	2.4	1.27×
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 800	$25.5K 51,019 coins	11.7%	6	3.9	1.53×
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 571	$18.7K 37,392 coins	12.0%	3	5.5	0.55×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$15.1K 30,112 coins	11.1%	6	6.3	0.96×
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 290	$6,328 12,655 coins	8.0%	12	10.8	1.11×
Charm \| Baby Karat CTcharm · rare	1 in 200	$3,848 7,697 coins	7.1%	11	15.7	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 100	$1,757 3,515 coins	6.5%	44	31.4	1.40×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	10.0%	$101 201 coins	3.7%	296	314.0	0.94×
MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$97.15 194 coins	3.6%	288	314.0	0.92×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$32.01 64.02 coins	2.4%	644	628.0	1.03×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	20.0%	$23.04 46.07 coins	1.7%	601	628.0	0.96×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified	37.5%	$21.41 42.82 coins	3.0%	1,225	1177.5	1.04×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$302604 coins$52.4K104,780 coins173.6x7d

Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$302604 coins$31.6K63,128 coins104.6x2d

Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$302604 coins$31.6K63,128 coins104.6x4d

Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$302604 coins$25.5K51,019 coins84.51x22h

Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$302604 coins$25.5K51,019 coins84.51x2d

Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$302604 coins$25.5K51,019 coins84.51x3d

Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$302604 coins$25.5K51,019 coins84.51x5d

Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$302604 coins$25.5K51,019 coins84.51x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified$302604 coins$21.4142.82 coins0.07x48m

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary$302604 coins$1,7573,515 coins5.82x48m

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified$302604 coins$21.4142.82 coins0.07x48m

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classifiedeliboti$302604 coins$21.4142.82 coins0.07x48m

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified$302604 coins$21.4142.82 coins0.07x51m

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$302604 coins$6,32812,655 coins20.96x51m

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified$302604 coins$21.4142.82 coins0.07x51m

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classifiedeliboti$302604 coins$21.4142.82 coins0.07x51m

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified$302604 coins$21.4142.82 coins0.07x55m

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$302604 coins$6,32812,655 coins20.96x55m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$302	90.00%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%legendary 1.0%remarkable 0.6%extraordinary 0.4%rare 0.5%covert knife 10.0%restricted 30.0%classified 57.5%best hit $52.4K (173.6x)