M4A1 Shop

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$66.88

134 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $60.18 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.23%

110 openings, odds method

Variance

7.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

95.36%±52.14102 openings

30 days

94.23%±50.21110 openings

since tracking started

94.23%±50.21110 openings

42.5%95.3%148.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	102	95.36%±52.1	+0.2σ	odds
30d	110	94.23%±50.2	+0.2σ	odds
All	110	94.23%±50.2	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$6,389 12,778 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,501 3,002 coins	1.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$1,433 2,866 coins	23.8%	1	1.1	0.91×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$715 1,429 coins	11.9%	0	1.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$595 1,191 coins	9.9%	2	1.1	1.82×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$215 431 coins	10.7%	5	3.3	1.52×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$143 286 coins	9.5%	5	4.4	1.14×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon	1 in 25	$132 263 coins	8.7%	6	4.4	1.36×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$75.07 150 coins	8.7%	8	7.7	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$50.58 101 coins	5.9%	12	7.7	1.56×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified	12.0%	$19.42 38.83 coins	3.9%	13	13.2	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	12.0%	$15.38 30.75 coins	3.1%	8	13.2	0.61×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	12.0%	$6.00 12 coins	1.2%	15	13.2	1.14×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New)weapon · restricted	12.0%	$4.01 8.01 coins	0.8%	12	13.2	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	12.0%	$0.39 0.77 coins	0.1%	5	13.2	0.38×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	11.9%	$0.28 0.55 coins	0.1%	18	13.1	1.37×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert$66.88134 coins$1,4332,866 coins21.43x2d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$66.88134 coins$5951,191 coins8.90x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$66.88134 coins$15.3830.75 coins0.23x2d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$66.88134 coins$75.07150 coins1.12x2d

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$66.88134 coins$0.280.55 coins0.00x2d

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert$66.88134 coins$50.58101 coins0.76x2d

M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified$66.88134 coins$19.4238.83 coins0.29x2d

M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classifiedBriskFang8264$66.88134 coins$19.4238.83 coins0.29x2d

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$66.88134 coins$0.280.55 coins0.00x2d

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$66.88134 coins$6.0012 coins0.09x2d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$66.88134 coins$5951,191 coins8.90x2d

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$66.88134 coins$0.280.55 coins0.00x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$66.88	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 27.1%classified 26.0%other 4.0%restricted 19.0%Mythical 23.9%best hit $1,433 (21.43x)