Madness

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$88.58

177 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $79.71 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

101.57%

2,711 openings, odds method

Variance

20.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 71

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

77.14%±36.68574 openings

30 days

101.57%±16.882,711 openings

since tracking started

101.57%±16.882,711 openings

40.0%79.5%119.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	574	77.14%±36.7	−0.7σ	odds
30d	2,711	101.57%±16.9	+1.3σ	odds
All	2,711	101.57%±16.9	+1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,711 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| mousesports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 500	$3,498 6,995 coins	8.8%	6	5.4	1.11×
Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 500	$3,097 6,194 coins	7.8%	5	5.4	0.92×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 500	$2,993 5,986 coins	7.5%	7	5.4	1.29×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 500	$2,935 5,870 coins	7.4%	6	5.4	1.11×
Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 500	$2,877 5,754 coins	7.2%	6	5.4	1.11×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 500	$2,844 5,688 coins	7.1%	5	5.4	0.92×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 500	$2,813 5,625 coins	7.1%	10	5.4	1.84×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 500	$2,643 5,286 coins	6.6%	7	5.4	1.29×
Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary	1 in 500	$2,528 5,057 coins	6.3%	4	5.4	0.74×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100	$631 1,262 coins	7.9%	29	27.1	1.07×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100	$451 903 coins	5.7%	27	27.1	1.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 67	$354 708 coins	6.7%	63	40.7	1.55×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 59	$280 560 coins	6.0%	36	46.1	0.78×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 50	$167 335 coins	4.2%	53	54.2	0.98×
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 17	$50.22 100 coins	3.8%	177	162.7	1.09×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	85.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	2,270	2304.3	0.99×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$88.58177 coins$3,4986,995 coins39.49x4d

Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$88.58177 coins$3,4986,995 coins39.49x6d

Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$88.58177 coins$3,4986,995 coins39.49x7d

Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$88.58177 coins$3,4986,995 coins39.49x8d

Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014sticker · high$88.58177 coins$3,0976,194 coins34.96x7d

Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014sticker · high$88.58177 coins$3,0976,194 coins34.96x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$88.58177 coins$451903 coins5.10x1d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$88.58177 coins$354708 coins4.00x1d

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$88.58177 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$88.58	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.2%high 0.4%covert 6.5%Extraordinary 0.2%covert knife 1.7%extraordinary 6.0%#4b69ff 85.0%best hit $3,498 (39.49x)