Marked Bills

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$76.22

152 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $68.59 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

134.25%

134 openings, odds method

Variance

7.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 22

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

134.25%±47.43134 openings

30 days

134.25%±47.43134 openings

since tracking started

134.25%±47.43134 openings

86.0%134.3%182.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	134	134.25%±47.4	+1.8σ	odds
30d	134	134.25%±47.4	+1.8σ	odds
All	134	134.25%±47.4	+1.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 134 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$2,338 4,676 coins	17.0%	2	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100	$1,012 2,023 coins	14.7%	4	1.3	2.99×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 33	$506 1,012 coins	22.1%	4	4.0	1.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 20	$233 466 coins	17.0%	4	6.7	0.60×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$189 379 coins	13.8%	4	6.7	0.60×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$75.09 150 coins	8.8%	9	10.7	0.84×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 33	$40.72 81.43 coins	1.8%	4	4.0	1.00×
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$23.26 46.51 coins	1.7%	8	6.7	1.19×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$12.01 24.01 coins	1.4%	11	10.7	1.03×
Nova \| Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$10.01 20.02 coins	1.2%	8	10.7	0.75×
MP9 \| Green Plaid (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 11	$2.21 4.42 coins	0.3%	8	12.1	0.66×
SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Factory New)weapon · Rare	44.5%	$0.30 0.61 coins	0.2%	68	59.6	1.14×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Emerald$76.22152 coins$2,3384,676 coins30.67x6d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$76.22152 coins$1,0122,023 coins13.27x4d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$76.22152 coins$1,0122,023 coins13.27x6d

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$76.22152 coins$5061,012 coins6.64x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New)weapon · Rare$76.22152 coins$0.300.61 coins0.00x4d

SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted$76.22152 coins$23.2646.51 coins0.31x4d

AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$76.22152 coins$12.0124.01 coins0.16x4d

AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil specSanityy$76.22152 coins$12.0124.01 coins0.16x4d

SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New)weapon · Rare$76.22152 coins$0.300.61 coins0.00x4d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$76.22152 coins$1,0122,023 coins13.27x4d

SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New)weapon · RareSanityy$76.22152 coins$0.300.61 coins0.00x4d

SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New)weapon · Rare$76.22152 coins$0.300.61 coins0.00x6d

AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$76.22152 coins$12.0124.01 coins0.16x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$76.22	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.5%covert 4.0%Extraordinary 5.0%classified 5.0%mil spec 16.0%gold 3.0%restricted 5.0%industrial 8.0%Consumer Grade 9.0%Rare 44.5%best hit $2,338 (30.67x)