Marshmallow
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.67
3.33 coins
Advertised RTP
89.77%
EV $1.49 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.58%
28.1K openings, odds method
Variance
29.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 74
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covertdaemonpk$1.673.33 coins$252503 coins151.1x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.77%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.67 | 89.77% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#4b69ff 2.0%covert 0.6%other 0.2%#ffd700 0.0%restricted 0.1%extraordinary 0.5%consumer 94.7%#8847ff 2.0%best hit $253 (151.9x)