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MattGhii Cache

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$5.00
10 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
120.19%
394 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
166 openings · below min
7 days
298 openings · below min
30 days
394 openings · below min
since tracking started
394 openings · below min
16.5%125.5%234.5%

Small sample. 394 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h166125.62%±108.4—sample
7d298126.24%±84.7—sample
30d394120.19%±70.8—sample
All394120.19%±70.8—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Charm | That's Bananascharm · uncommon$5.0010 coins$333667 coins66.67x
Charm | That's Bananascharm · uncommon$5.0010 coins$333667 coins66.67x
M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert$5.0010 coins$301602 coins60.22x
M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert$5.0010 coins$301602 coins60.22x
M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert$5.0010 coins$301602 coins60.22x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
R8 Revolver | Grip (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.0010 coins$0.150.31 coins0.03x
P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecGrimSnipe8171$5.0010 coins$0.040.07 coins0.01x
Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$5.0010 coins$1.282.55 coins0.26x
USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$5.0010 coins$0.340.68 coins0.07x
R8 Revolver | Grip (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.0010 coins$0.150.31 coins0.03x
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$5.0010 coins$3.446.88 coins0.69x
AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.0010 coins$0.230.47 coins0.05x
AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.0010 coins$0.230.47 coins0.05x
P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$5.0010 coins$0.040.07 coins0.01x
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New)weapon · restrictedGrimSnipe8171$5.0010 coins$11.0422.07 coins2.21x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $333 (66.67x)