MAXXING
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$313.31
627 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $281.97 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
59.50%
1,001 openings, odds method
Variance
79.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,001 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$313627 coins$10.9K21,888 coins34.93x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $313 | 90.00% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%legendary 0.1%remarkable 6.1%contraband 0.1%#4b69ff 93.8%best hit $10.9K (34.93x)