Mega Neon Pumper

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$30.65

61.29 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $27.58 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.54%

378 openings, odds method

Variance

10.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83 openings · below min

7 days

82.54%±32.60378 openings

30 days

82.54%±32.60378 openings

since tracking started

82.54%±32.60378 openings

12.0%82.3%152.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	83	82.18%±69.6	—	odds
7d	378	82.54%±32.6	−0.4σ	odds
30d	378	82.54%±32.6	−0.4σ	odds
All	378	82.54%±32.6	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 378 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 10,000	$6,234 12,468 coins	2.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$3,644 7,288 coins	1.3%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,661 3,323 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,510 3,021 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 1,000	$1,321 2,641 coins	4.8%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$254 508 coins	9.2%	7	3.8	1.85×
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$181 361 coins	6.5%	3	3.8	0.79×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	15.0%	$115 231 coins	62.8%	51	56.7	0.90×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$98.06 196 coins	3.6%	4	3.8	1.06×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$39.19 78.38 coins	1.4%	5	3.8	1.32×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$35.95 71.89 coins	1.3%	2	3.8	0.53×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$34.03 68.06 coins	1.2%	7	3.8	1.85×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$21.58 43.15 coins	1.5%	7	7.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 33	$9.27 18.53 coins	1.0%	11	11.3	0.97×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 10	$0.86 1.72 coins	0.3%	31	37.3	0.83×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 11	$0.81 1.63 coins	0.3%	35	34.0	1.03×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 11	$0.78 1.55 coins	0.3%	28	34.0	0.82×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 11	$0.76 1.51 coins	0.2%	39	34.0	1.15×
AUG \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$0.74 1.48 coins	0.2%	41	34.0	1.21×
Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$0.72 1.44 coins	0.2%	28	34.0	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	11.1%	$0.66 1.32 coins	0.3%	42	42.1	1.00×
FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 13	$0.53 1.05 coins	0.2%	37	30.2	1.22×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$30.6561.29 coins$115231 coins3.77x11h

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert$30.6561.29 coins$98.06196 coins3.20x11h

AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert$30.6561.29 coins$39.1978.38 coins1.28x11h

AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red$30.6561.29 coins$9.2718.53 coins0.30x11h

Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue$30.6561.29 coins$0.761.51 coins0.02x11h

M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$30.6561.29 coins$0.661.32 coins0.02x11h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$30.6561.29 coins$115231 coins3.77x11h

Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$30.6561.29 coins$0.861.72 coins0.03x11h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$30.6561.29 coins$115231 coins3.77x11h

Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue$30.6561.29 coins$0.761.51 coins0.02x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$30.65	90.00%	22

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 0.0%covert 20.9%legendary 0.1%restricted 10.0%classified 1.0%red 3.0%#8847ff 18.9%pink 9.0%blue 9.0%#4b69ff 9.0%Mil Spec Grade 11.1%#87c7ff 8.0%best hit —