Meltdown

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$118.75

238 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $106.87 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.61%

8 openings, odds method

Variance

4.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

30 days

8 openings · below min

since tracking started

8 openings · below min

-0.5%122.5%245.5%

Small sample. 8 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	0	—	—	—
30d	8	96.61%±148.0	—	odds
All	8	96.61%±148.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| compLexity Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$1,723 3,447 coins	16.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$1,120 2,239 coins	10.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$1,036 2,071 coins	9.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100	$882 1,765 coins	8.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$721 1,442 coins	6.7%	0	0.1	—
Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$525 1,051 coins	4.9%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$259 519 coins	2.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 25	$182 364 coins	6.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 25	$180 360 coins	6.7%	0	0.3	—
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 25	$178 355 coins	6.7%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$175 350 coins	6.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 33	$104 208 coins	2.9%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 33	$104 207 coins	2.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$103 205 coins	2.9%	0	0.2	—
SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$101 202 coins	2.8%	0	0.2	—
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New)weapon · classified	65.0%	$5.04 10.08 coins	3.1%	7	5.2	1.35×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary$119238 coins$8821,765 coins7.43x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$119	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 1.0%covert 3.0%legendary 1.0%classified 67.0%#d32ee6 4.0%sunny 4.0%Classified 7.0%restricted 7.0%Covert 3.0%covert knife 3.0%best hit $882 (7.43x)