Meluhdy

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$89.71

179 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $80.74 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

104.67%

8,343 openings, odds method

Variance

91.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 224

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

119.39%±50.571,368 openings

7 days

111.64%±25.715,294 openings

30 days

104.67%±20.488,343 openings

since tracking started

104.67%±20.488,343 openings

68.0%119.3%170.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,368	119.39%±50.6	+1.1σ	odds
7d	5,294	111.64%±25.7	+1.6σ	odds
30d	8,343	104.67%±20.5	+1.4σ	odds
All	8,343	104.67%±20.5	+1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,343 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 18,182	$72.4K 144,822 coins	4.9%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 2,500	$10.9K 21,888 coins	5.4%	3	3.3	0.90×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$9,925 19,850 coins	4.9%	4	3.3	1.20×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$9,847 19,695 coins	4.9%	9	3.3	2.70×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$9,398 18,795 coins	4.7%	5	3.3	1.50×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,500	$8,347 16,693 coins	4.1%	2	3.3	0.60×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,500	$8,079 16,159 coins	4.0%	5	3.3	1.50×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 2,500	$7,754 15,508 coins	3.8%	5	3.3	1.50×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,500	$7,651 15,302 coins	3.8%	3	3.3	0.90×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$7,444 14,887 coins	3.7%	7	3.3	2.10×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,500	$7,335 14,669 coins	3.6%	4	3.3	1.20×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,500	$7,137 14,274 coins	3.5%	5	3.3	1.50×
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,857	$7,082 14,163 coins	3.1%	5	2.9	1.71×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,857	$6,562 13,124 coins	2.8%	6	2.9	2.05×
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 2,857	$6,328 12,655 coins	2.7%	3	2.9	1.03×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,857	$6,282 12,564 coins	2.7%	1	2.9	0.34×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,857	$4,962 9,924 coins	2.2%	3	2.9	1.03×
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 2,857	$4,761 9,523 coins	2.1%	3	2.9	1.03×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 2,857	$4,425 8,850 coins	1.9%	2	2.9	0.68×
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,857	$4,209 8,418 coins	1.8%	1	2.9	0.34×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,857	$3,644 7,288 coins	1.6%	3	2.9	1.03×
Sticker \| mousesports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 2,857	$3,498 6,995 coins	1.5%	4	2.9	1.37×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,857	$3,326 6,652 coins	1.4%	6	2.9	2.05×
Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 2,857	$3,097 6,194 coins	1.3%	0	2.9	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,857	$2,993 5,986 coins	1.3%	1	2.9	0.34×
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 2,857	$2,955 5,910 coins	1.3%	0	2.9	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,857	$2,946 5,893 coins	1.3%	4	2.9	1.37×
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 2,857	$2,919 5,838 coins	1.3%	6	2.9	2.05×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100	$744 1,489 coins	9.2%	79	83.4	0.95×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$122 244 coins	1.5%	86	83.4	1.03×
XM1014 \| Red Leather (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 25	$36.61 73.22 coins	1.8%	339	333.7	1.02×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$26.89 53.78 coins	1.7%	424	417.2	1.02×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$23.04 46.07 coins	1.7%	493	500.6	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$13.79 27.57 coins	1.2%	601	584.0	1.03×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$10.59 21.17 coins	1.0%	633	667.4	0.95×
Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	67.0%	$0.07 0.14 coins	0.1%	5,588	5589.4	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$89.71179 coins$10.9K21,888 coins122.0x12h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$89.71179 coins$10.9K21,888 coins122.0x5d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$89.71179 coins$10.9K21,888 coins122.0x8d

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$89.71179 coins$9,92519,850 coins110.6x3d

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$89.71179 coins$9,92519,850 coins110.6x5d

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$89.71179 coins$9,92519,850 coins110.6x6d

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$89.71179 coins$9,92519,850 coins110.6x7d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$89.71179 coins$9,84719,695 coins109.8x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$89.71179 coins$9,84719,695 coins109.8x3d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$89.71179 coins$9,84719,695 coins109.8x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$89.71179 coins$0.070.14 coins0.00x38m

AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiednigxoo$89.71179 coins$10.5921.17 coins0.12x38m

Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$89.71179 coins$0.070.14 coins0.00x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$89.71	90.00%	36

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 1.0%contraband 0.1%covert 8.6%extraordinary 0.1%remarkable 0.1%knifes 0.0%high 0.1%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%classified 19.0%mil spec 67.0%best hit $10.9K (122.0x)