Metal Legion
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.34
24.67 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $11.10 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.99%
122 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 122 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $76.74 153 coins | 20.7% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $66.94 134 coins | 18.1% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $22.86 45.72 coins | 41.2% | 22 | 24.4 | 0.90× |
| Nova | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $6.70 13.4 coins | 12.1% | 26 | 24.4 | 1.07× |
| MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 20.0% | $2.63 5.26 coins | 4.7% | 31 | 24.4 | 1.27× |
| CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue | 17.0% | $2.07 4.14 coins | 3.2% | 14 | 20.7 | 0.68× |
| P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 1 in 12 | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 9 | 10.4 | 0.87× |
| MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 12 | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 14 | 10.4 | 1.35× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec GradeMoon1025$12.3424.67 coins$2.635.26 coins0.21x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.34 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 26.0%restricted 20.0%Mil Spec Grade 20.0%light blue 17.0%industrial 8.5%Consumer Grade 8.5%best hit —