Millionaire
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.41
2.81 coins
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $1.26 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.36%
11.8K openings, odds method
Variance
10701.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
100.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 11,812 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 50,000 | $25.5K 51,019 coins | 40.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50,000 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 23.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 50,000 | $9,925 19,850 coins | 15.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 50,000 | $7,444 14,887 coins | 11.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Charm | Chicken Lil'charm · uncommon | 1 in 50,000 | $5,000 10,000 coins | 7.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 100.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.4% | 11,812 | 11810.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.41 | 89.94% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.0%uncommon 0.0%#4b69ff 100.0%best hit —