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mingyu061226 dlore FIRE!

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$9,627.33
19,255 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
74.58%
404 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
404 openings · below min
30 days
404 openings · below min
since tracking started
404 openings · below min
37.5%74.8%112.0%

Small sample. 404 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d40474.58%±36.5—sample
30d40474.58%±36.5—sample
All40474.58%±36.5—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covertNirra$9,62719,255 coins$217K434,217 coins22.55x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$9,62719,255 coins$217K434,217 coins22.55x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$9,62719,255 coins$217K434,217 coins22.55x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covertNirra$9,62719,255 coins$217K434,217 coins22.55x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$9,62719,255 coins$217K434,217 coins22.55x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$9,62719,255 coins$217K434,217 coins22.55x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$9,62719,255 coins$217K434,217 coins22.55x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$9,62719,255 coins$217K434,217 coins22.55x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covertNirra$9,62719,255 coins$217K434,217 coins22.55x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$9,62719,255 coins$217K434,217 coins22.55x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerNirra$9,62719,255 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$9,62719,255 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$9,62719,255 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$9,62719,255 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$9,62719,255 coins$36.5K72,902 coins3.79x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$9,62719,255 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$9,62719,255 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$9,62719,255 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryNirra$9,62719,255 coins$36.5K72,902 coins3.79x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$9,62719,255 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $217K (22.55x)