Mini jackpot
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.80
1.59 coins
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $0.72 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.87%
5,372 openings, odds method
Variance
295.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
100.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,374 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 100,000 | $3,920 7,840 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $252 503 coins | 17.6% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.49× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $62.66 125 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 10,000 | $59.61 119 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 10,000 | $59.10 118 coins | 0.8% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $50.58 101 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $5.22 10.44 coins | 7.3% | 52 | 53.7 | 0.97× |
| Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 98.9% | $0.48 0.96 coins | 66.4% | 5,315 | 5315.4 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covertvahidka023gma$0.801.59 coins$252503 coins316.5x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$0.801.59 coins$59.10118 coins74.33x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$0.801.59 coins$59.10118 coins74.33x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.80 | 89.96% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%classified 0.0%mil spec 0.0%restricted 99.9%best hit $252 (316.5x)