Minty Grove

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$82.21

164 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $73.98 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.24%

32 openings, odds method

Variance

3.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

32 openings · below min

7 days

32 openings · below min

30 days

32 openings · below min

since tracking started

32 openings · below min

25.0%86.3%147.5%

Small sample. 32 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	32	86.24%±60.5	—	odds
7d	32	86.24%±60.5	—	odds
30d	32	86.24%±60.5	—	odds
All	32	86.24%±60.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100	$759 1,518 coins	10.3%	1	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 50	$571 1,141 coins	15.4%	0	0.6	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 40	$466 933 coins	15.8%	0	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 3	1 in 36	$405 809 coins	15.0%	2	0.9	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$166 332 coins	9.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 20	$137 274 coins	9.3%	2	1.6	1.25×
Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$132 264 coins	8.9%	1	1.6	0.63×
Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 20	$127 254 coins	8.6%	1	1.6	0.63×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$30.12 60.24 coins	3.3%	2	2.6	0.78×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified	12.5%	$26.63 53.26 coins	4.5%	4	4.0	1.00×
XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	52.3%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	19	16.7	1.14×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New)gloves · legendary$82.21164 coins$7591,518 coins9.23x3h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 3$82.21164 coins$405809 coins4.92x2h

USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified$82.21164 coins$26.6353.26 coins0.32x2h

XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$82.21164 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$82.21164 coins$137274 coins1.67x2h

XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$82.21164 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified$82.21164 coins$26.6353.26 coins0.32x2h

XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerkvaki$82.21164 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$82.21164 coins$127254 coins1.55x2h

XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$82.21164 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$82.21	90.00%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 1.0%covert 2.0%red 2.5%Knives 2.8%extraordinary 4.0%Restricted 10.0%restricted 5.0%#8847ff 8.0%classified 12.5%consumer 52.3%best hit $759 (9.23x)