Miracle

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$10.28

20.55 coins

Advertised RTP

90.01%

EV $9.25 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.75%

1,748 openings, odds method

Variance

12.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

39.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.66%±42.36262 openings

7 days

100.10%±19.181,278 openings

30 days

96.75%±16.401,748 openings

since tracking started

96.75%±16.401,748 openings

43.5%86.5%129.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	262	86.66%±42.4	−0.2σ	odds
7d	1,278	100.10%±19.2	+1.0σ	odds
30d	1,748	96.75%±16.4	+0.8σ	odds
All	1,748	96.75%±16.4	+0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,748 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$9,355 18,710 coins	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · knifes	1 in 20,000	$1,706 3,412 coins	0.9%	1	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20,000	$1,534 3,068 coins	0.8%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 20,000	$1,316 2,632 coins	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 10,000	$264 527 coins	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$259 519 coins	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 10,000	$259 519 coins	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$259 517 coins	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$149 298 coins	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$135 270 coins	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$130 259 coins	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted	30.0%	$14.33 28.65 coins	46.5%	534	524.4	1.02×
Tec-9 \| Rust Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	30.0%	$13.87 27.73 coins	45.0%	537	524.4	1.02×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	10.0%	$2.67 5.34 coins	2.9%	182	174.8	1.04×
MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.55 1.09 coins	0.6%	155	174.8	0.89×
MAG-7 \| Foresight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	19.9%	$0.01 0.03 coins	0.0%	339	348.1	0.97×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · knifes$10.2820.55 coins$1,7063,412 coins166.0x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert$10.2820.55 coins$2.675.34 coins0.26x42m

MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$10.2820.55 coins$0.551.09 coins0.05x42m

Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted$10.2820.55 coins$14.3328.65 coins1.39x42m

Tec-9 | Rust Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$10.2820.55 coins$13.8727.73 coins1.35x42m

Tec-9 | Rust Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · UncommonBG2x$10.2820.55 coins$13.8727.73 coins1.35x42m

Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted$10.2820.55 coins$14.3328.65 coins1.39x44m

Tec-9 | Rust Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$10.2820.55 coins$13.8727.73 coins1.35x44m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$10.28	90.01%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.0%knifes 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%high 0.0%gold 0.0%covert knife 0.0%restricted 30.0%Uncommon 30.0%mil spec 10.0%#4b69ff 19.9%best hit $1,706 (166.0x)