Mirage
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.23
12.45 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $5.60 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.66%
468 openings, odds method
Variance
5.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 468 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 1 in 67 | $71.17 142 coins | 19.1% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.14× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert | 1 in 40 | $59.51 119 coins | 26.6% | 11 | 11.7 | 0.94× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $42.01 84.01 coins | 37.5% | 26 | 23.4 | 1.11× |
| MP7 | Orange Peel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 12.0% | $5.63 11.26 coins | 12.1% | 52 | 56.2 | 0.93× |
| P250 | Contamination (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $1.61 3.21 coins | 1.4% | 26 | 23.4 | 1.11× |
| XM1014 | Entombed (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $1.56 3.12 coins | 1.4% | 19 | 23.4 | 0.81× |
| UMP-45 | Delusion (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec | 10.0% | $0.92 1.83 coins | 1.6% | 42 | 46.8 | 0.90× |
| P90 | Sand Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 59.0% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 0.4% | 284 | 276.1 | 1.03× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$6.2312.45 coins$42.0184.01 coins6.75x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.23 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedindustrial 18.5%Covert 2.5%extraordinary 5.0%pink 5.0%Mil Spec 10.0%consumer 59.0%best hit —