Mirage Charm
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.17
30.34 coins
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $13.65 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.76%
1,108 openings, odds method
Variance
45.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,108 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charm | Baby Karat CTcharm · rare | 1 in 2,000 | $3,848 7,697 coins | 14.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 2,000 | $1,805 3,610 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 333 | $510 1,020 coins | 11.2% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.90× |
| Charm | Diner Dogcharm · #d32ce6 | 1 in 167 | $270 540 coins | 11.9% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.75× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $130 260 coins | 19.1% | 28 | 22.2 | 1.26× |
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 50 | $50.13 100 coins | 7.3% | 25 | 22.2 | 1.13× |
| P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $40.53 81.05 coins | 7.4% | 36 | 27.7 | 1.30× |
| SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 1 in 20 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 9.2% | 57 | 55.4 | 1.03× |
| Charm | Lil' Whiskerscharm · #8847ff | 1 in 11 | $15.58 31.15 coins | 10.3% | 94 | 99.7 | 0.94× |
| Charm | Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff | 78.5% | $0.50 1 coins | 2.9% | 860 | 869.8 | 0.99× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.17 | 89.97% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.1%gold 0.1%epic 0.3%#d32ce6 0.6%covert 4.5%Industrial Grade 2.0%Rare 5.0%#8847ff 9.0%#4b69ff 78.5%best hit $510 (33.62x)