Module

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$85.92

172 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $77.32 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

69.88%

280 openings, odds method

Variance

8.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 23

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

69.30%±46.94144 openings

30 days

69.88%±33.66280 openings

since tracking started

69.88%±33.66280 openings

21.5%69.3%117.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	144	69.30%±46.9	−0.9σ	odds
30d	280	69.88%±33.7	−1.2σ	odds
All	280	69.88%±33.7	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 280 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Charm \| Baby Karat Tcharm · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,000	$3,485 6,970 coins	4.5%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 500	$2,877 5,754 coins	7.4%	0	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$1,239 2,478 coins	6.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 250	$1,089 2,177 coins	5.6%	1	1.1	0.89×
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 167	$870 1,740 coins	6.8%	2	1.7	1.19×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 143	$658 1,315 coins	6.0%	2	2.0	1.02×
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$632 1,265 coins	6.5%	2	2.2	0.89×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 83	$525 1,051 coins	8.2%	4	3.4	1.19×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 83	$517 1,035 coins	8.0%	7	3.4	2.08×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · Immortal · Phase 3	1 in 83	$501 1,001 coins	7.8%	1	3.4	0.30×
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 59	$336 671 coins	7.4%	4	4.8	0.84×
Charm \| That's Bananascharm · uncommon	1 in 59	$333 667 coins	7.3%	1	4.8	0.21×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 50	$240 480 coins	6.2%	6	5.6	1.07×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives	1 in 50	$233 465 coins	6.0%	3	5.6	0.54×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$227 454 coins	5.9%	6	5.6	1.07×
AUG \| Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common	83.8%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	241	234.6	1.03×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$85.92172 coins$1,0892,177 coins12.67x7d

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$85.92172 coins$8701,740 coins10.13x6d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$85.92172 coins$6581,315 coins7.65x6d

AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified$85.92172 coins$6321,265 coins7.36x2d

AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified$85.92172 coins$6321,265 coins7.36x6d

Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$85.92172 coins$5251,051 coins6.12x6d

Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$85.92172 coins$5251,051 coins6.12x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common$85.92172 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2d

AUG | Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Commonraka12k$85.92172 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2d

AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified$85.92172 coins$6321,265 coins7.36x2d

AUG | Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common$85.92172 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$85.92	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#eb4b4b 0.1%high 0.2%extraordinary 1.0%Classified 0.4%covert 5.6%classified 2.0%Immortal 1.2%uncommon 1.7%#EB4B4B 2.0%Knives 2.0%Common 83.8%best hit $1,089 (12.67x)