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Moonshine

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$1,572.97
3,146 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,415.67 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.28%
364 openings, odds method
Variance
8.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
56 openings · below min
7 days
69.28%±30.50364 openings
30 days
69.28%±30.50364 openings
since tracking started
69.28%±30.50364 openings
-0.5%71.5%143.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h5664.90%±77.8—odds
7d36469.28%±30.5−1.3σodds
30d36469.28%±30.5−1.3σodds
All36469.28%±30.5−1.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 364 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 333$52.4K 104,780 coins11.1%01.10.00×
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 200$41.2K 82,490 coins14.6%11.80.55×
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,000$18.7K 37,392 coins1.3%00.4—
AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$9,355 18,710 coins0.7%10.4—
★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 67$8,979 17,957 coins9.5%65.51.10×
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary1 in 67$8,972 17,944 coins9.5%25.50.37×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald1 in 57$7,898 15,795 coins9.8%66.40.94×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary1 in 57$7,754 15,508 coins9.6%86.41.26×
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 57$7,752 15,504 coins9.6%26.40.31×
★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 33$4,097 8,194 coins8.7%1310.91.19×
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 25$2,730 5,460 coins7.7%2114.61.44×
Sticker | Happy (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker1 in 20$2,121 4,242 coins7.5%1718.20.93×
USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 13$24.16 48.32 coins0.1%3329.11.13×
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert70.8%$7.51 15.01 coins0.4%254257.50.99×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,5733,146 coins$41.2K82,490 coins26.22x
AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,5733,146 coins$9,35518,710 coins5.95x
★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,5733,146 coins$8,97917,957 coins5.71x
★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,5733,146 coins$8,97917,957 coins5.71x
★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,5733,146 coins$8,97917,957 coins5.71x
★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,5733,146 coins$8,97917,957 coins5.71x
★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,5733,146 coins$8,97917,957 coins5.71x
★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,5733,146 coins$8,97917,957 coins5.71x
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary$1,5733,146 coins$8,97217,944 coins5.70x
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary$1,5733,146 coins$8,97217,944 coins5.70x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,5733,146 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.00x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,5733,146 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.00x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,5733,146 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.00x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,5733,146 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.00x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,5733,146 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.00x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,5733,146 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.00x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,5733,146 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.00x
Sticker | Happy (Gold) | Boston 2018stickerfficient$1,5733,146 coins$2,1214,242 coins1.35x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,5733,146 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.00x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,5733,146 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$1,57390.00%14
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.3%covert 77.8%extraordinary 0.1%legendary 8.8%other 5.0%mil spec 8.0%best hit $41.2K (26.22x)