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A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$4,312.13
8,624 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $3,880.91 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d0———
30d0———
All0———
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 200$72.4K 144,822 coins9.3%00.0—
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 100$26.7K 53,347 coins6.9%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 50$18.7K 37,392 coins9.6%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 33$9,847 19,695 coins7.6%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 33$9,356 18,711 coins7.2%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald1 in 33$7,898 15,795 coins6.1%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 33$7,714 15,428 coins6.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby1 in 33$7,335 14,669 coins5.7%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 25$6,321 12,641 coins6.5%00.0—
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 20$5,306 10,611 coins6.8%00.0—
★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 14$3,140 6,279 coins5.7%00.0—
Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014sticker · high1 in 14$2,919 5,838 coins5.3%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl1 in 14$2,845 5,691 coins5.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 220.0%$1,197 2,393 coins6.2%00.0—
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Covert20.0%$1,151 2,301 coins5.9%00.0—
FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Factory New)weapon · consumer11.5%$24.98 49.95 coins0.1%00.0—
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$4,31290.00%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 12.5%covert 40.0%extraordinary 2.0%high 7.0%#EB4B4B 7.0%Covert 20.0%consumer 11.5%