Motion Maker
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,219.41
2,439 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,097.46 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
160.95%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 20 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$1,2192,439 coins$7,65115,302 coins6.27x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,2192,439 coins$1,6613,323 coins1.36x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,2192,439 coins$1,6613,323 coins1.36x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covertBreeTheG$1,2192,439 coins$1,0022,005 coins0.82x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,2192,439 coins$1,0022,005 coins0.82x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,2192,439 coins$1,0022,005 coins0.82x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,2192,439 coins$1,0022,005 coins0.82x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$1,2192,439 coins$8091,619 coins0.66x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$1,2192,439 coins$8091,619 coins0.66x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,2192,439 coins$1,6613,323 coins1.36x
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$1,2192,439 coins$5271,055 coins0.43x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$1,2192,439 coins$7,65115,302 coins6.27x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,2192,439 coins$1,0022,005 coins0.82x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covertBreeTheG$1,2192,439 coins$1,0022,005 coins0.82x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,2192,439 coins$1,0022,005 coins0.82x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,219 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.0%covert 35.5%contraband 3.0%Covert 19.5%classified 10.0%covert knife 10.0%other 21.0%best hit $15.1K (12.35x)