Mountains
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$145.68
291 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $131.11 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.44%
26 openings, odds method
Variance
6.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 26 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)weapon · covert · Phase 4$146291 coins$44.3288.63 coins0.30x
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)weapon · covert · Phase 4$146291 coins$44.3288.63 coins0.30x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $146 | 90.00% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#eb4b4b 1.0%uncommon 12.0%covert 28.0%#ffd700 8.0%#8847ff 8.0%Industrial Grade 10.0%classified 10.0%restricted 10.0%mil spec 13.0%best hit $606 (4.16x)