My Drilla
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.46
42.92 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $19.31 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.28%
96 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 96 openings and 24.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 96 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert | 25.0% | $50.58 101 coins | 65.5% | 25 | 24.0 | 1.04× |
| SSG 08 | Mayan Dreams (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 25.0% | $26.67 53.33 coins | 34.5% | 20 | 24.0 | 0.83× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 50.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 51 | 48.0 | 1.06× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covertDemonDeeeeek$21.4642.92 coins$50.58101 coins2.36x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.46 | 90.00% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 25.0%Industrial Grade 25.0%#4b69ff 50.0%best hit —