Naughty List
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.28
56.55 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $25.44 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.77%
36 openings, odds method
Variance
5.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 36 openings and 7.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 1,000 | $1,129 2,258 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 1,000 | $1,050 2,099 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 1,000 | $1,018 2,037 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1 | 1 in 500 | $500 1,000 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 286 | $333 666 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 143 | $168 336 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| M4A1-S | Control Panel (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 18.4% | $44.27 88.53 coins | 32.1% | 10 | 6.6 | 1.51× |
| USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 80.0% | $13.42 26.84 coins | 42.2% | 26 | 28.8 | 0.90× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.28 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 0.3%covert 1.3%Legendary 18.4%mil spec 80.0%best hit —