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Nebula

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$30.52
61.03 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $27.46 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.20%
331 openings, odds method
Variance
20.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 71
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
56 openings · below min
7 days
281 openings · below min
30 days
331 openings · below min
since tracking started
331 openings · below min
21.0%141.0%261.0%

Small sample. 331 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h56140.95%±119.2—odds
7d281100.48%±53.2—odds
30d33188.20%±49.0—odds
All33188.20%±49.0—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 331 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 200$1,237 2,473 coins22.5%31.71.81×
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 11 in 200$1,044 2,089 coins19.0%01.70.00×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 41 in 250$835 1,669 coins12.2%21.31.51×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire1 in 167$632 1,265 coins13.8%22.01.01×
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 100$326 653 coins11.9%13.30.30×
★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 100$226 451 coins8.2%53.31.51×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 100$117 234 coins4.3%13.30.30×
★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 100$62.66 125 coins2.3%23.30.60×
Charm | Semi-Preciouscharm · rare1 in 100$20.86 41.72 coins0.8%43.31.21×
MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 13$7.07 14.13 coins2.1%2926.51.10×
Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 13$4.88 9.75 coins1.4%2626.50.98×
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 13$2.36 4.72 coins0.7%3326.51.25×
P90 | Module (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 13$1.65 3.3 coins0.5%2726.51.02×
M249 | Downtown (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 13$1.04 2.07 coins0.3%1726.50.64×
Charm | Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff1 in 13$0.50 1 coins0.1%2526.50.94×
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer45.0%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%154149.01.03×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$30.5261.03 coins$1,2372,473 coins40.52x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$30.5261.03 coins$1,2372,473 coins40.52x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$30.5261.03 coins$1,2372,473 coins40.52x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$30.5261.03 coins$8351,669 coins27.35x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$30.5261.03 coins$8351,669 coins27.35x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire$30.5261.03 coins$6321,265 coins20.72x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire$30.5261.03 coins$6321,265 coins20.72x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$30.5261.03 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Charm | Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff$30.5261.03 coins$0.501 coins0.02x
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$30.5261.03 coins$2.364.72 coins0.08x
MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert$30.5261.03 coins$7.0714.13 coins0.23x
Charm | Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff$30.5261.03 coins$0.501 coins0.02x
MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert$30.5261.03 coins$7.0714.13 coins0.23x
Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New)weapon · Rare$30.5261.03 coins$4.889.75 coins0.16x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$30.5261.03 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$30.5261.03 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Charm | Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff$30.5261.03 coins$0.501 coins0.02x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$30.5289.99%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.9%gold 1.5%Covert 0.6%covert knife 1.0%rare 1.0%Rare 8.0%classified 8.0%mil spec 8.0%violet 8.0%#4b69ff 8.0%consumer 45.0%best hit $1,237 (40.52x)