NeedCrazyLuck
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$380.83
762 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $342.74 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.86%
300 openings, odds method
Variance
9.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 300 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$381762 coins$73.96148 coins0.19x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$381762 coins$73.96148 coins0.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $381 | 90.00% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.5%covert 0.5%contraband 0.5%high 1.0%extraordinary 16.0%gold 8.0%classified 38.0%Industrial Grade 10.0%mil spec 25.5%best hit $3,374 (8.86x)