Negev Power
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$33.85
67.69 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $30.46 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.84%
574 openings, odds method
Variance
24.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 574 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $1,598 3,196 coins | 52.5% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.87× |
| Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 25 | $253 506 coins | 33.2% | 13 | 23.0 | 0.57× |
| M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 50 | $89.99 180 coins | 5.9% | 9 | 11.5 | 0.78× |
| Souvenir M249 | Gator Mesh (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 50 | $77.52 155 coins | 5.1% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× |
| Negev | Palm (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 50 | $18.92 37.84 coins | 1.2% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.96× |
| M249 | Shipping Forecast (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 1 in 50 | $12.53 25.05 coins | 0.8% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.96× |
| M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 50 | $11.24 22.47 coins | 0.7% | 7 | 11.5 | 0.61× |
| Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 50 | $3.66 7.31 coins | 0.2% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× |
| Negev | Nuclear Waste (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 100 | $1.47 2.94 coins | 0.0% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.87× |
| Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff | 82.0% | $0.09 0.17 coins | 0.2% | 493 | 470.7 | 1.05× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $33.85 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.0%#4b69ff 86.0%Industrial Grade 4.0%industrial 3.0%#87c7ff 2.0%consumer 2.0%#8847ff 2.0%best hit $1,598 (47.21x)