Neptune
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$76.25
152 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $68.62 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.67%
654 openings, odds method
Variance
10.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 654 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4 | 1 in 200 | $1,505 3,010 coins | 11.0% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.53× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 67 | $1,178 2,355 coins | 25.7% | 9 | 9.8 | 0.92× |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $932 1,864 coins | 54.3% | 33 | 26.2 | 1.26× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $136 273 coins | 8.0% | 21 | 26.2 | 0.80× |
| SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 90.0% | $0.77 1.54 coins | 1.0% | 586 | 588.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4$76.25152 coins$1,5053,010 coins19.74x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4$76.25152 coins$1,5053,010 coins19.74x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4$76.25152 coins$1,5053,010 coins19.74x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4$76.25152 coins$1,5053,010 coins19.74x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4$76.25152 coins$1,5053,010 coins19.74x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$76.25152 coins$1,1782,355 coins15.45x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertEliteRift1189$76.25152 coins$1,1782,355 coins15.45x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$76.25152 coins$1,1782,355 coins15.45x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$76.25152 coins$1,1782,355 coins15.45x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$76.25152 coins$1,1782,355 coins15.45x
Latest dropsnewest first
SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Gradefortune$76.25152 coins$0.771.54 coins0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $76.25 | 89.99% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedKnives 0.5%covert 5.5%classified 4.0%Mil Spec Grade 90.0%best hit $1,505 (19.74x)