Neura Charm
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$291.58
583 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $262.42 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.35%
154 openings, odds method
Variance
10.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 154 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charm | Chicken Lil'charm · uncommon | 1 in 50 | $5,000 10,000 coins | 38.1% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× |
| ★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 50 | $3,592 7,183 coins | 27.4% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× |
| Sticker | suNny (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $2,528 5,057 coins | 19.3% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,501 3,002 coins | 11.4% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1 | 1 in 50 | $500 1,000 coins | 3.8% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 90.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 142 | 138.6 | 1.02× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$292583 coins$3,5927,183 coins12.32x
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$292583 coins$3,5927,183 coins12.32x
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldBufff$292583 coins$3,5927,183 coins12.32x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$292583 coins$1,5013,002 coins5.15x
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1$292583 coins$5001,000 coins1.72x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $292 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listeduncommon 2.0%covert 4.0%Extraordinary 2.0%other 2.0%#4b69ff 90.0%best hit $5,000 (17.15x)